Can World War III be averted?

I am very optimistic that World War III can be averted even with the present anarchical system of international politics. A realist would most likely disagree as realism’s core principle is that humans are, by nature, selfish and competitive. And that the lack of an overarching authority that is supposed to ensure security and order, and conflicting national interests, creates an environment where world conflict is inevitable. Hence, realists are inherently pessimistic in their international political outlook.

But to a liberal (not to be confused with a “left-leaning” ideology in US politics), countries are not actively engaged in power struggle as realists contend. In fact, countries can interact through mutual cooperation, friendship and even altruism. Moreover, unlike realists, liberals believe that international politics need not be a “zero-sum” game where one must lose in order for another to win; rather, it can be a “win-win” situation where all actors gain. Such views saw the formation of the League of Nations by an American president and idealist, Woodrow Wilson. The main idea was to foster a partnership of democratic nations; an ideal that is still cultivated by the United Nations.

Constructivism puts forward an important theory that is very different from that of realism and liberalism; it is a different way of thinking in that we tend to label and define political structures that trap us within the borders of our imagined “stable” states. We then form mental pictures of who we are based on this presumed stability. A good example is the collapse of USSR where a political identity disappeared rather quickly. However, constructivists also believe in an interactive process that is open to ideas and keeps the lines of communication open among its agents. These agents can be individuals, groups or other political structures. And these processes lead to treaties, laws, and international organizations such as the UN, WTO, and IMF etc.

My view is more pragmatic. I find myself careening between liberalism as well as constructivism. As said in the text (below), democracies hardly go to war with each other. Therefore, as countries begin to shift to more democratic systems, then views about the real cost of war, for example, will take center stage in debates.

I also tend to think that as more countries become richer and more interconnected then the actors will all have a stake in international affairs. And the thought of wiping a civilization will be a tough sale.

Furthermore, technology and education will continue to have an effect on how people view each other, and how well nations can manage scarce resources. For instance, as solar technology advances, oil, coal and natural gas might just be a thing of the past. Many conflicts over such resources will cease as the sun is readily available to all.

NOTE:

Except where noted, the ideas in this article are adopted from a course text book (below) for general discussion purposes.

Rourke, T. John. 2008.  International Politics on the World Stage. 12th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.